AP Statistics: Introduction to Probability Lesson Plan
Overview
Students will be participating in a flipped classroom and web-based lesson on introductory probability. Instead of students doing in class notes, students will proceed through the web-based material at home. When students return back to the classroom, they will participate in several small group activities (3-4 students) to further their understanding and demonstrate their understanding of probability. This lesson is designed to introduce the basics of probability as outlined by the College Board Standards for AP Statistics.
Time Frame
This lesson will take 3-4 class days.
Objectives
Student will be able to (SWBAT) interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency.
SWBAT use simulation to model chance behavior.
SWBAT describe a probability model for a chance process.
SWBAT use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.
College Board Standards for AP Statistics
III . Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation (20%–30%)
Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should look like under a given model.
A . Probability
1 . Interpreting probability, including long-run relative frequency interpretation
2 . “Law of Large Numbers” concept
3 . Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence
Web 2.0 Tools Required
- Prezi
- Sophia Pathways
- Statistical Interactive Applets
- Voice Thread
- Math is Fun
- Khan Academy
Students will be participating in a flipped classroom and web-based lesson on introductory probability. Instead of students doing in class notes, students will proceed through the web-based material at home. When students return back to the classroom, they will participate in several small group activities (3-4 students) to further their understanding and demonstrate their understanding of probability. This lesson is designed to introduce the basics of probability as outlined by the College Board Standards for AP Statistics.
Time Frame
This lesson will take 3-4 class days.
Objectives
Student will be able to (SWBAT) interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency.
SWBAT use simulation to model chance behavior.
SWBAT describe a probability model for a chance process.
SWBAT use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.
College Board Standards for AP Statistics
III . Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation (20%–30%)
Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should look like under a given model.
A . Probability
1 . Interpreting probability, including long-run relative frequency interpretation
2 . “Law of Large Numbers” concept
3 . Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence
Web 2.0 Tools Required
- Prezi
- Sophia Pathways
- Statistical Interactive Applets
- Voice Thread
- Math is Fun
- Khan Academy
Description of Lesson
Night 1
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Day 1
- In groups of 3-4 students, students will share their definitions with the group. The group should rewrite and finalize all three definitions using group consensus.
- Regroup students into pairs. Students will begin using statistical applets that demonstrate the Law of Large Numbers (probability as a long-run relative frequency) using a probability simulator.
- Applet #1 Probability - Students use this applet (shown below left) to simulate tossing a coin, not just 10 times, but 100's and 1000's of times!
- Applet #2 Law of Large Numbers - Students can use this applet (shown below right) to simulate rolling one die or more.
- Finally, back in groups students should begin designing a group Voice Thread to summarize the information they have learned about the objectives of this lesson. They will add to their Voice Thread during the next class as well.
Night 2
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Day 2
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Day 3
- Assessment - Students are to complete 20 probability questions. This can be presented as a formative or a summative assessment. There are 10 quiz questions at the end of each Math is Fun page for complement and mutually exclusive probability lessons. Have students answer the questions individually.
- Have students finish their Voice Thread presentations. These can be presented to the class and/or emailed to the instructor depending on the need of the students and their assessment results.
References
College Board (2010). AP statistics course description. Retrieved from http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/ap/ap-statistics-course-description.pdf
Roblyer, M. D. & Doerling, A. H. (2013). Integrating educational technology into teaching (6th ed.) (p.10-51). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.
Starnes, D., Yates, D., & Moore, D. (2011). The practice of statistics. New York, New York: W.H. Freeman and Company.
Website Links
http://prezi.com/paynm-o3psz9/math-tutorial-probability-range/
http://www.sophia.org/
http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips4e/cat_010/applets/applets.htm
http://voicethread.com/
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/index.html#stats
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/independent-dependent-probability
College Board (2010). AP statistics course description. Retrieved from http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/ap/ap-statistics-course-description.pdf
Roblyer, M. D. & Doerling, A. H. (2013). Integrating educational technology into teaching (6th ed.) (p.10-51). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.
Starnes, D., Yates, D., & Moore, D. (2011). The practice of statistics. New York, New York: W.H. Freeman and Company.
Website Links
http://prezi.com/paynm-o3psz9/math-tutorial-probability-range/
http://www.sophia.org/
http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips4e/cat_010/applets/applets.htm
http://voicethread.com/
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/index.html#stats
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/independent-dependent-probability